Is the UK recession nearing an end?
The last few days has seen the release of significant data and significant reports which appear to show a growing confidence in the UK economy. While it would be wrong to suggest that the UK economy will bounce significantly in the short term there are signs that confidence is starting to seep back into the market place. Are we really at a turning point in the recession or is this just another false dawn?
While the latest business news shows more job losses, financial difficulties and lower business levels we need to appreciate that this data is historic. However, while there is no doubt that many areas of the UK economy are still struggling, UK unemployment is set to rise significantly, more businesses will go to the wall and the property market is still friendless, there would appear to be the makings of potential "green shoots" of recovery.
So far the UK government has been unwilling to forecast a recovery in the UK economy although if the recent trend in economic reports and business feedback continues to improve it can only be a matter of time before we see politicians on the TV hailing the end of the crisis. Those looking towards a recovery in the short to medium term need to appreciate the difference between a stabilisation period and actual recovery.
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