When will we know the recession is over?
Industrial output figures for October were released today with many analysts dismayed by the lack of growth in the UK economy despite hopes that the final three months of 2009 would bring in a new era for the UK business arena. This now begs the question, when will we know the recession is actually over?
We have seen many contradicting figures over the last few months indicating the UK economy is growing, is stagnating and in some cases is actually contracting again. The bottom line is that only when consumers start to spend again will we then realise that the recession is over and we can hopefully start to look forward to better times. It is consumer spending, i.e. the money in your pocket that you have to spend, which will come from a more stable employment market, a feel-good factor and ultimately in due course wage rises.
The retail market really will give the definitive sign that the UK economy has turned even though other indicators may well show a possible earlier turning point. As a consequence, in many ways we can discount the festive period for 2009, which will be difficult to say the least, and begin to look forward to the retail sector and retail sales figures for 2010.
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