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Alistair Darling calls end of the recession in October

Leaked extracts from the forthcoming budget speech by Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, have appeared today in the financial press. It would appear the Alistair Darling is ready to call the end of the UK recession in October, during his next budget speech on 22 April. Interestingly, the Chancellor will set out the recovery process for the UK economy which will see negative growth halted in the fourth quarter of 2009 and a recovery well under way in time for next general election in 2010.

While there have been some reports suggesting the UK recession will end this year, we have also seen a number of third-party reviews suggesting that the economy may not recover until 2012. If Alistair Darling is seen to be over optimistic during his budget speech he will set himself wide open to criticism ahead of the next general election. However, if he talks down the UK economy then he will stand accused of holding back the good news until the election. Either way, it looks as though Alistair Darling is in a no-win situation.

It will be interesting to see the tone and detail of his budget speech at a time when the UK consumer and UK business arena are looking for a confident and accurate forecast for the future.

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