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CBI banks on recession turn around next year

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has today suggested that the worst of the UK recession is now over although those looking for a sharp turnaround could well be disappointed. While the CBI report has been well received by investors, there is a suggestion that we will see no marked recovery in the UK economy until this time next year.

As we covered in one of our earlier post, both the US and the UK economies appear to have "bottomed out" but the recovery is still very fragile as demonstrated by the disappointing figures from Bank of America. The CBI has no real axe to grind either way with regards to the economy which is why their reports seem to carry significant sway with the investment community. Unlike with the government, where there is an agenda to possibly make things look better than they actually are, the CBI has a responsibility to "tell it how it is" so that members can make arrangements for the future.

There is also some debate as to how quickly the UK economy will bounce next year with the government suggesting a recovery in the region of 1.3% while other third-party reports suggesting an increase of only 0.1%. The forthcoming UK budget is likely to see the UK government highlight the potential recovery next year amid concerns that the figures may be "beefed up".

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