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How will we know the recession has ended?

As UK consumers and UK investors become more and more confused regarding the UK economy, many people are now wondering how we will know the recession has ended. Will there be one sign, a number of signs or will it be a combination of events?

In basic terms, the UK session will end once the UK economy starts to grow rather than shrink as we have seen over the last few months. However, we will see a number of indicators prior to the actual move into positive ground which will include an increase in liquidity for the money markets, increased funding for consumers an increase in demand for property and a slowdown in unemployment. Unfortunately, these issues will not occur at the same time and we will see significant time lags between certain stages of the recovery which could confuse people even more.

Even though many people have suggested we will see a V shaped recovery, this appears more unlikely by the day as different signals remain volatile and very difficult to read in the short to medium term. This will be no short-term bounce, this will be no large scale bounce back to the good times and even when the slowdown has stopped it will take some time for UK plc to recover.

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