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When will we know the recession has officially ended?

As many people around the UK continue to become more and more confused as to the current state of the UK economy, when will we actually know that the recession has ended?

This is a very tricky question bearing in mind the Office for National Statistics has issued a number of performance statistics only to adjust them substantially in the weeks and months ahead. Officially we entered recession when there were two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the UK economy and as a consequence we will leave the recession when we see two consecutive quarters of positive growth in the UK economy - but can we really trust the statistics from the Office for National Statistics?

The last few weeks have seen a significant deterioration in respect for the Office for National Statistics although ultimately we have no choice but to believe their figures at least until any significant changes are made. However, there is no doubt that a general increase in consumer confidence and a feel-good factor will ultimately show the UK population that the recession is over and positive growth in the UK economy has returned. How this feel-good factor will show itself is unclear at this point in time but confidence from consumers and businesses (which are easier to measure and monitor) will be one of the first sea-changes to occur.

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