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Is the UK recession really coming to an end?

While there have been a number of comments and signals today which would indicate that the UK recession is coming to an end, why only last week did we see the Bank of England pour cold water on hopes for a short-term recovery?

Today we saw an upbeat statement from Bovis Homes and new figures regarding business confidence which appears to be as high as it has been since the beginning of the recession. If this is the case why is Mervyn King adamant that the UK economy is in danger of being hit by deflation and could ultimately slip into a Japanese-style recession that might last a decade?

Even though the UK economy has been difficult to forecast at best over the last couple of years there is more confusion and misunderstanding today than there has been for some time. Does the Bank of England actually know something which has not yet been released and could push the UK economy further into recession? Or are the UK government and the Bank of England playing down the chances of a short-term economic revival ahead of the election at which point the feelgood factor could come into play?

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