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UK set to leave recession in the third quarter of 2009

Today's revision of the GDP figures between April and June were well received, even though the adjustment was minimal, and many analysts now believe the UK will move out of recession in the third quarter of 2009. HSBC is forecasting a 0.5% rise in the UK economy in the third quarter and a 0.7% rise in the fourth quarter. So will 2009 be the end of the UK recession?

While there are high hopes that the UK will pull away from recession in 2009, some analysts believe that once the VAT cut is taken away we could see the economy fall and in a worst-case scenario experience a possible "W" shaped recession. Some people also believe that the ongoing momentum in the consumer market as we approach Christmas could fade in the first quarter of 2010 when the VAT rate will return to normal rates and the quantitative easing program may well end.

Even though there are some interesting trends in the UK economy, and it seems as though we will move out of recession in 2009, those who feel that the worst is now behind us may well live to regret any complacency. Can we really wave goodbye to the recession in 2009?

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