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Confidence is returning but has the economy turned?

Today we see JD Wetherspoon announcing record figures and profits nearly 10% ahead of consensus forecasts, we hear that property prices are yet again on the rise and mortgage liquidity appears to be improving. On top of that there is the assumption that the UK economy may well have left the recessionary period in May this year and looks set to move on to the growth path in the latter part of 2009. So the signs are there but why does nobody believe the economy has turned?

It would appear that all of the figures and reports we see about a turnaround in the economy are based upon confidence from both consumers and businesses. However, while we need to see this confidence continue we also need a significant improvement in the UK government's budget deficit and national debt. Confidence is the kickstart that is needed to turnaround an economy but ultimately we also need an economic environment for both consumers and businesses to prosper and spend their money again.

At this moment in time the UK government is not willing, or not able, to give an indication on when taxes will increase and by what level they will rise. There is also no structured plan to reduce national debt which is a very significant concern for many in the UK and many prominent parties outside of the UK. Confidence has appeared again but we need to see a follow through in the state of UK Plc finances.

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