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Will unemployment peak at 2.8 million?

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) have today issued a revised forecast regarding unemployment in UK with a suggestion it could peek at 2.8 million in 2010. While an increase from the current 2.5 million to 2.8 million would obviously be unwelcome, it is a sharp reduction in the Institute's initial forecast of 3.2 million peak. So is the UK economy recovering quicker than many had expected?

While the reduction in the forecast is welcome to say the least, the truth is that nobody is 100% certain about how the UK economy will perform in 2010. There are still many who believe we could see a second dip in the economy while others believe that the worst is over and 2010 will be a year of consolidation, creating a springboard for the future. Only a few weeks ago the majority of economic experts had been adamant that the unemployment rate in the UK would top 3 million although the consensus now is that it will not smash through this psychological figure.

Slowly but surely there are signs that the UK economy is starting to harden and perhaps recovery is just around the corner but we also need to appreciate that confidence is fragile and liquidity in the banking sector is nowhere near where it should be.

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