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When will unemployment in the UK start to fall?

A report in the financial press today suggests that UK unemployment will peak at 2.8 million in 2010 but there is no suggestion as to when we can expect a significant fall in unemployment. While the fact that unemployment appears unlikely to reach the 3 million barrier has been well received there is still confusion and debate as to how quickly we can expect the unemployment number to come down once it has peaked.

Despite the fact that the UK economy has been showing signs of recovery many believe that 2010 will at best be a year of consolidation for the UK economy. We are likely to see significant cost-cutting across the business arena, pay freezes and an increase in pressure on the UK benefit system. It is also worth mentioning that the unemployment figure does actually lag the performance of the UK economy so we could in effect see the economy turnaround in the short term but unemployment continue to rise.

The recession has been particularly difficult for the youth unemployment market where figures have risen to record levels and led to the creation of a disenchanted younger workforce. This will be a particular area of concern for the current government and the next government because the youth of today are the workforce of tomorrow.

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