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Is the UK already in recession?

The revelation by Ernst & Young that the UK is already in recession with economic growth forecast to fall this year and fall further next year to 1% will shock many. Over the last few weeks we have been subjected to a barrage of victorious headlines stating that the rescue package was working and the UK would be move forward over the next few months. But this is certainly not on the cards yet!

The forecast for economic growth to fall even further will bring home the seriousness of the situation to many who had otherwise been blinded by the spin. Things will get worse before they get better, unemployment will rise and the property market is probably a place to avoid until the situation settles down.

While the official confirmation that the UK is indeed in recession will not come until the next set of quarterly figures it seems certain that we are heading down that road after a number of false dawns. The Labour government must now be praying that the economy rebounds before the middle of 2010 at which point Gordon Brown will be forced to call a general election as his current tenure comes to a close.

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