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Will Christmas retail sales be better than earlier forecasts?

While we see the news of rescue packages being put into practice all around the world it seems that maybe the festive period will not be as bad as earlier forecasts for the high street. But is it any better out there? Are people spending money? Will Christmas be worse than anticipated?

The basic fact is that the rescue packages being put in place around the world will not lead to a sudden and strong rise in economic activity. All that the packages will do is put a floor under the worldwide money market and investment markets and give them a base from which to start and recover. We will not see a short term bounce, we will not see all of the bad news disappear over night but we should start to see markets stabilise at lower levels.

The truth is that unemployment in the UK and around the world is set to rise for at least another 18 months (or longer) which will see spare cash in the economy continually reduce until the figure starts to recover. Christmas on the high street this year will be tough but more worryingly it could actually be even tougher next year!

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