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Cadbury investor could bail out at 820p a share

Unofficially it is believed that at least one of Cadbury's top-10 institutional shareholders would consider an offer in the region of £8.20 a share for the UK chocolate maker. This comes just hours after Cadbury issued a relatively upbeat trading statement although on reflection some analysts are concerned that the upbeat statement may just be a little shy of what is required to beat off the potential bid from Kraft Foods.

In many ways a weak trading statement would have prompted early closure of the situation although we are currently in the middle ground with Cadbury's neither performing badly nor performing exceptionally. There will be many behind-the-scenes talks over the next few days between Cadbury, institutional shareholders and possibly Kraft Foods although rumours suggest that other companies such as Unilever may well be interested in making an offer for Cadbury.

It may well be a situation where the Cadbury management are forced to admit defeat and ultimately attempt to get the highest possible price for investors. So far there has been no suggestion of how the management would increase shareholder value in the short to medium term, something which a higher bid from Kraft Foods (or another party) would offer.

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