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Market awaits confirmation that the recession is over

Later this morning the Office for National Statistics will release data that should confirm that the UK economy moved out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2009 and is now back on the growth path. However, even if the UK economy has moved out of recession what does this mean for businesses and consumers across the country?

The truth is that there will be a significant lag between the economy moving out of recession and a recovery in business and a recovery in personal financial situations. Those who expect a light to be switched on when the economy moves out of recession and everything to return back to normal will be sorely disappointed.

There are still many issues to be resolved within the UK including the budget deficit which is expected to hit £178 billion in the current tax year, the inevitable increase in taxes to replenish the UK government coffers and while unemployment may have dropped last month there is no certainty that number has peaked. All in all, by all means we need to enjoy the expected good news later today but those who become complacent and believe the worst is over may well have to think again.

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