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Could UK debt really be downgraded?

Today's news that the UK credit rating has been placed upon "negative watch" is obviously an unwelcome move which the UK government would rather have avoided. However, when you appreciate that UK debt is heading towards £1 trillion and the UK budget deficit is still around the £150 million level it is not difficult to see why credit rating agencies are concerned about the UK. But will the UK credit rating really be downgraded?

While the vast majority of experts in the UK would suggest that the UK rating will not be downgraded it would be foolish to totally discount this potential problem. When you look at the bare bones of the argument, the position of the UK economy and UK national debt is not exactly a confidence booster to investment markets. When you also take into account confusion regarding UK economic recovery in the short to medium term it is not difficult to understand why there is some concern.

It should become clearer over the next 12 months as to whether the UK will actually experience a double-dip recession or the recovery will gather pace and strength. However, to totally discount the potential for a credit rating downgrade is both foolish and dangerous.

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