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Can we now call the end of the European recession?

Today's economic data from France and Germany was far better than many expected but can we now call the end of the European recession?

Well there's no doubt that the French and German economies are two of the most influential within Europe there's also no doubt that both countries have significant budget deficits. As a consequence, austerity measures taken across Europe will impact the short to medium-term prospects for the French and German economies and are highly likely to slow down any economic recovery. Even though many people are tempted to call the end of the European recession this would be a very dangerous strategy indeed!

At this point in time it is unclear exactly why the French and German economies have performed so strongly in the second quarter of 2010 although economists will now be looking for "one-off measures" which may have impacted the figures. The truth is that the performance of these two leading economies actually looks too good to be true and when you also take into account an upgrade on some of the historic growth data, the situation appears even brighter!

We may well be totally wrong and the European economy could be headed for a significant period of growth but against a backdrop of enormous austerity measures this seems highly unlikely.

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