Alistair Darling's growth forecast smashed to pieces
Today's news that the UK economy fell by a shocking 0.4% in the third quarter of 2009, against analysts expectations of a rise of 0.2%, has blown Alistair Darling's budget forecasts to pieces. He had originally suggested that the UK economy would move out of recession in the second half of 2009 yet we are now moving towards the latter part of 2009 and many analysts are now concerned that the UK could end 2009 still deep in recession.
The major impact for Alistair Darling is tax income which will be under pressure for months to come and would widen the UK budget deficit which has conservatively been forecast at £175 billion for this year. There is no doubt that Alistair Darling's pre-budget statement later this year will make interesting reading because it is now very difficult to see the light at the end of the tunnel when we are now six months later than planned into a recession.
So far the UK government has made no official statement regarding the GDP figures but the severity of the downturn has surprised many seasoned economist. Even if these figures are revised further down the line it is highly unlikely they will be revised to such an extent as to move into positive territory and if they were it would cast yet more doubt on official economic data from the UK government.
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